Read Around the World: February 18, 2022
Please find our recommended weekend reads covering key issues and events around the world. We hope you find these informative, useful, and perhaps even fun. Please let us know if you want us to add anyone to our mailing list.
Russia
> Chatham House “Why Minsk-2 cannot solve the Ukraine crisis”
Since tensions ratcheted between Ukraine and Russia, various policymakers have pushed for “Minsk implementation” as a potential diplomatic silver bullet. But that may not be the case.
> Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “How Kazakhstan Fought Back Against Soviet Nuclear Tests”
Carnegie offers a photographic history of how Soviet leaders conducted more than 450 nuclear tests across the Kazakh steppes – forever changing the land and the people. But they also pushed back. Here is how.
> Russian Analytical Digest (Center for Security Studies, Zurich) “Russia’s Role in the Contemporary International Agri-Food Trade System”
This is a comprehensive report looking at Russia’s overall agricultural trade system – who they trade with regionally and bilaterally (including the US).
> Chainanalysis “Russian Cybercriminals Drive Significant Ransomware and Cryptocurrency-based Money Laundering Activity”
Russia is a leading country in cryptocurrency adoption, placing 18th overall on our Global Crypto Adoption Index. But the story of Russia’s cryptocurrency usage isn’t entirely positive. Individuals and groups based in Russia — some of whom have been sanctioned by the United States in recent years — account for a disproportionate share of activity in several forms of cryptocurrency-based crime.
> Foreign Affairs “What if Russia Wins?”
If Russia gains control of Ukraine or manages to destabilize it on a major scale, a new era for the United States and for Europe will begin. U.S. and European leaders would face the dual challenge of rethinking European security and of not being drawn into a larger war with Russia. All sides would have to consider the potential of nuclear-armed adversaries in direct confrontation. These two responsibilities—robustly defending European peace and prudently avoiding military escalation with Russia—will not necessarily be compatible. The United States and its allies could find themselves deeply unprepared for the task of having to create a new European security order as a result of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine.
United States
> Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter “Joe Biden’s new Indo-Pacific Strategy: A View from Southeast Asia”
The Biden Administration just released an Indo-Pacific Strategy document, reiterating the importance of the region to the US. Even though the document states the US “will focus on every corner of the region, from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to South Asia and Oceania, including the Pacific Islands,” it’s obvious that Southeast Asia is very much in the heart of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. This Australian think tank writes that rather than trying to push ASEAN to confront China, the White House has made an important gesture for unity.
> University of Virginia Center for Politics “Ranking the States Demographically, from Most Republican-Friendly to Most Democratic-Friendly”
The Center looked at 3 variables that are increasingly linked with partisan voting patterns: education level, race, and urbanization. When the states are rank-ordered by their composite scores on these 3 measures, both the top (Republican) and bottom (Democratic) halves of our 1-through-50 list, only 5 out of 25 states broke ranks by voting for the presidential candidate who was at odds with the state’s demographic tendencies. This suggests that these 3 demographic factors have a strong influence on presidential voting behavior.
> The New Yorker “Is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez an Insider Now?”
Ocasio-Cortez was first elected to Congress three years ago but quickly emerged as a leader of the Progressive wing of the Democratic party. New Yorker Editor David Remnick interviews the political firebrand to discuss her political future and the future of the Progressive movement.
Italy
> Brookings Institution “Even After Mattarella’s Re-Election, Italy’s Political System Remains Unstable”
After a confusing presidential election process that led to expected winner Mario Draghi not winning the spot, markets are wondering what impact this will have on efforts to reform the EU’s fiscal rules.
China
> Breaking Defense “It’s not just 5G: China’s telecom strategy needs to be countered in space”
In Washington the consensus is well set that China’s strategy for 5G has created a telecommunications nightmare for American interests. What is less clear is how to proceed. In the following op-ed, the author suggests that the Biden administration needs to look up to space to provide a counter for China’s telecommunications plan.
> Foreign Affairs “Enemies of My Enemies: How Fear of China is Forging A New World Order”
Through a surge of repression and aggression, China has frightened countries near and far. It is acting belligerently in East Asia, trying to carve out exclusive economic zones in the global economy, and exporting digital systems that make authoritarianism more effective than ever. For the first time since the Cold War, a critical mass of countries face serious threats to their security, welfare, and ways of life—all emanating from a single source. And that is forcing them to come together to push back.
> Peterson Institute for International Economics “China Bought None of the Extra $200 billion of US Exports in Trump’s Trade Deal”
Two years ago, President Donald Trump signed what he called a "historical trade deal" with China that committed China to purchase $200 billion of additional US exports before December 31, 2021. In the end, China bought only 57 percent of the US exports it had committed to purchase under the agreement, not even enough to reach its import levels from before the trade war.
North Korea
> Center for New American Security “Following the Crypto: Using Blockchain Analysis to Assess the Strength and Vulnerabilities of North Korean Hackers”
Under heavy and sustained pressure from decades of economic sanctions, North Korea has rapidly expanded its illicit activity within the cyber domain. In particular, Pyongyang has demonstrated an increasing interest in using evolving financial platforms, such as cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, to compensate for the fiscal losses related to economic sanctions on more traditional forms of commercial activity. Since 2014, the Pyongyang-led cybercrime organization known as the Lazarus Group has transformed from a rogue team of hackers to a masterful army of cybercriminals and foreign affiliates, capable of compromising major national financial networks and stealing hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of virtual assets.
Latin America
> The Diplomat “Argentina Joins China’s Belt and Road”
The Argentine President’s attendance at the Beijing Winter Olympics brought big strides in the relationship with China. And in the face of a contentious new deal with the IMF, may suggest Argentina is going to get closer to China in the years ahead.
Africa
> Carnegie Endowment for International Peace “Why the EU-AU Summit Could be a Turning Point”
The summit outcomes are unlikely to match the EU’s rhetoric on a new partnership of equals. But the two continents are starting to realize that they need each other and offer tremendous economic opportunities to the other.
Vietnam
> Center for Strategic & International Studies “Vietnam’s Twin Tech Challenge: Spearheading While Catching Up”
Vietnam is becoming a new digital powerhouse in Southeast Asia. The Google, Temasek, and Bain e-Conomy SEA 2021 report dubbed the 2020s the “Trillion Twenties” for Southeast Asia, as the region’s digital economy will pass the trillion-dollar valuation mark. Within the region, Vietnam has emerged as a center for dynamic growth. Although the gross merchandise value of Vietnam’s internet economy currently lags behind a number of its neighbors at an estimated $21 billion in 2021, that figure is expected to reach $150–$220 billion by 2030.
Technology/Blockchain/Crypto
> Georgetown Journal of International Affairs “Where the US Chips Fall: Fault Lines and Big Breaks in the Global Semiconductor Industry”
Modern life hinges on reliable access to semiconductor chips. Recent shortages have shaken critical supply chains, highlighting how precarious the global semiconductor industry is and how reliant the international community is on chips for their economic and national security.
> University College London/Global Economics Group “Can Crypto Fix Itself in Time?”
Professor David S. Evans, the author of this study, points out Payment methods have a high degree of inertia making change slow and challenging for new alternatives. So, it is not surprising that cryptocurrencies based on public blockchains are not broadly used 13 years after Bitcoin launched. The future of the largest public blockchains is limited, however, because they cannot, as is now widely acknowledged, provide stable currencies or operate efficient payment systems and other transactional services at scale. Their ability to correct these problems is impeded by the fact that they serve several masters—decentralization of authority in particular—and are not as nimble at making hard pivots as traditional startups given their consensus-based governance.
Sustainability/Alternative Energy
> Congressional Budget Office “How Carbon Dioxide Emissions Would Respond to a Tax”
The US Congress has been looking at a carbon tax to help fund sustainable programs. The US Chamber of Commerce has endorsed the idea. But how would it work? The CBO published this presentation to explain.
COVID and Global Security
> NATO/Instituto Affair Internazionali “Pandemics and International Security: The Outlook for NATO”
When it comes to international security, the pandemic mostly acted as a catalyst of existing trends, such as the geopolitical competition between the United States (US) and China – which has worsened, also due to the outbreak of the disease. This joint study looks at the broader implications of COVID on global security issue