Latin America Watch: As the US Struggles with the Migration Crisis, Honduras and the Rest of the Northern Triangle May Be Entering New Period of Political Turmoil

Latin America Watch: As the US Struggles with the Migration Crisis on the Southern Border, Honduras and the rest of the Northern Triangle May Be Entering a New Period of Political Turmoil

Honduras is a country of particular focus and concern to the Biden Administration. As one of the three nations constituting the “Northern Triangle,” Honduras has seen large numbers of its citizens flee the country that has been riven by poverty, extraordinary gang and drug violence, and overall crime. Most have trekked north to the US., thus being a leading contributor to the ongoing migration crisis on the southern US border. The other two countries of the Triangle are El Salvador and Guatemala.

In November 2021, Honduras elected its first female President, Xiomara Castro. Castro characterizes herself as a democratic socialist and is a political veteran. She was Honduras’ first lady until her populist husband was ousted in a coup in 2009. She previously launched two failed attempts at the presidency. 

 Castro is set to be sworn into office on January 27th – with US Vice President Kamala Harris set to attend – but domestic politics have taken an unexpected and troubling turn in recent days. The newly elected Honduran Congress exploded in acrimony, electing two different and competing leaders and holding dueling sessions. Concern over possible violent social unrest has escalated and worry about the future of the Castro presidency has emerged even before she takes office.

Of particular surprise, Castro’s own Liberty and Refoundation Party rebelled against her attempt to build a legislative majority by promising leadership of Congress to the allied party of her vice president, Salvador Nasralla, of the Salvation Party. That split threatens to give control of the legislature back to National and Liberal Parties that had traded the presidency for generations.

 As a result, in the last few days, large numbers of Castro’s supporters have surrounded the legislative building in protests. With the crowds growing in numbers, the competing faction moved to a nearby country club to hold their own session and elect their own leaders.

The political crisis highlights how challenging the Northern Triangle is for the Biden Administration -and in particular Vice President Harris – in seeking long-term reforms in the hopes of alleviating the historically massive migrant crisis at the US border.

Vice President Harris has been working to find ways to bolster cooperation to promote greater economic growth, counter corruption, and address the root causes of migration to the Triangle nations. Following Castro’s election, she reached agreements with Castro on a set of programs and policies for Honduras to begin meeting these goals.

Harris’ performance has been heavily criticized in the US by Republicans and the media. She avoided contact with the previous Honduran administration led by former President Hernandez, who has been implicated in a criminal case that resulted in his brother’s sentencing to life in prison for drug trafficking last year by a New York court. Local political observers have speculated the crisis may have been instigated to some degree by Hernandez and his political associates.

Overall, the Triangle region is proving to be a growing social and national security threat.  The two other Triangle nations – Guatemala and El Salvador – have emerged in the last year as authoritarian governments unwilling to work with the US.  

 In particular, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele called for a diplomatic “pause” with the US in November while aggressively pursuing more robust relations with China. This has included requesting significant infrastructure investment from China. The most recent example is the signing of a deal on December 30th for China to construct a 50,000-seat national stadium in El Salvador – a “gift” from China and not a loan, according to Bukele.  

 Bukele also oversaw the passage of a new law that allows the government to expropriate land for public use – thus allowing China to use the land to build the very infrastructure projects Bukele has accepted.

Of particular concern to US defense officials is China’s interest in the Gulf of Fonseca on the Pacific Coast, rimmed by El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Honduras. Notably, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega (another authoritarian just re-elected after jailing all his political opponents before the vote) cut long-held diplomatic relations with Taiwan in favor of China.  

Like El Salvador’s Bukele, Ortega is seeking large loans and infrastructure projects with China. He has made clear he would like China to modernize the port of La Union and make China the operator of the port, which would allow China to establish a naval presence. The Gulf is shallow and would require enormous work to make it capable of receiving large tankers and container ships. But it is just the sort of project China has been known to take on and succeed and make successful.